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03/14/2010 - Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Orlando Johnson finished with 20 points as UC Santa Barbara pulled out a 69-64 win over Long Beach State in the Big West Conference Tournament final.
James Nunnally added 19 points for the top-seeded Gauchos (20-9), who secured the automatic NCAA Tournament berth with their second-ever Big West tourney title. UCSB's only other victory in this tournament came in 2002.
"I thought back to all this hard work that we put in, I figured it had to pay off," Johnson said. "We worked so hard, nine months strong, ever since the beginning of the summer we had one goal, which was to get here and make the tournament."
Casper Ware had 19 points to pace the third-seeded 49ers (17-16), who were looking for their fifth Big West tourney title. T.J. Robinson and Greg Plater added 15 and 14 points, respectively, in the loss.
"We just didn't quite play good enough," Long Beach State head coach Dan Monson said. "You can sit here as a coach and bemoan our execution or your rebounding or whatever. But the bottom line is they made plays and they beat us."
UCSB led 47-37 after James Powell connected on a three-pointer with a little under 13 minutes to play, but Long Beach State charged back with a 10-0 run to even the game. Ware's fastbreak layup with 9 1/2 minutes left capped the rally.
The game remained close down the stretch, and with 2:09 left, Robinson's layup had the 49ers within 60-59. However, at the other end, Nunnally drained a three to provide a two-possession edge for UCSB.
Ware then sank two free throws with 1:45 on the clock, and neither team scored again until Robinson went to the line with 28.8 seconds remaining. He made just 1-of-2 to keep Long Beach State down a point, 63-62.
The 49ers fouled Powell, who made both attempts to make it a three-point game. Instead of trying for the long-distance shot, Long Beach State tried to get a quick basket. However, Ware missed a floater, and Stephan Gilling was called for an offensive foul going back up with the rebound.
Powell and Nunnally each sank two more free throws in the remaining time to seal the win.
The Gauchos built up a 10-point lead late in the first half, but Long Beach State ended the period on a Plater three and Robinson layup to get within 35-30 at the break.
UCSB continued to play in front in the second half, and consecutive baskets from Jaime Serna about three minutes in had the Gauchos up 41-32.
Game Notes
UCSB will go into the NCAA tourney on a three-game win streak. The Gauchos have won nine of their last 10...Long Beach State had won its previous three...The teams split the regular season series.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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