Two giants might actually meet

Horseracing Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A few weeks ago, at the post position draw for the Delaware Handicap, the discussion around the table was about the hoped- for meeting between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.

Since neither champion was entered in the 1 1/4-mile Del 'Cap we offered opinions on a possible face-to-face encounter of the two ladies. I stated my doubt that the two would meet this year, or ever. At the time, they were being kept apart from one another.

I felt that Zenyatta, 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, would remain in California and not venture outside the Golden State until the Breeders' Cup this year at Churchill Downs. The six-year-old mare is scheduled to make her next start in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar on August 7.

Rachel Alexandra, defending Horse of the Year, is just coming off a three- length victory in the Lady's Secret Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park. This was another 1 1/8-mile start for the four-year-old filly, who has not gone beyond 1 3/16-miles since winning last year's Preakness.

My belief had been that Rachel would be kept out of races beyond nine- furlongs, making the Breeders' Cup Classic a non-start.

I have changed my mind.

It now appears that trainer Steve Asmussen and owners Jess Jackson and Hal McCormick have been preparing Rachel for a 1 1/4-mile effort. In her first four starts of 2010 she has not been allowed to set the early pace. Jockey Calvin Borel has held the champion filly back in order to get her accustomed to coming from off the pace.

"I love where her mind is at right now," noted Asmussen. "She's more mature and she's carrying a little more weight.

"We're trying to avoid any peaks and valleys. I don't think you've seen the best of her yet. We have a lot of mare to work with. She's carrying a lot of flesh, and she's very sound and comfortable. It's getting to the time of year where more pressure will be put on her very step of the way."

Rachel is now being pointed toward the 1 1/4-mile Personal Ensign Stakes for fillies and mares at Saratoga on Sunday, August 29.

"We'll assess her condition when she goes back to the track, discuss everything with Mr. Jackson and go from there," said Asmussen from Saratoga. "I think there's a chance she can run here."

So, the whole thing about Rachel not just going ahead and annihilating her opposition in the early races was planned. We already know that Zenyatta can go 10-furlongs with no problem. Asmussen has been getting his filly ready for the longer distance, not just for the Personal Ensign, but also for a meeting against Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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