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03/16/2010 - Talladega, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Twenty-five Sprint Cup Series teams participated in a one-day test session at Talladega Superspeedway to determine the potential size of carburetor restrictor-plate openings and familiarize drivers with the new rear spoiler on the current cars.
While no announcement has been made yet, NASCAR is expected to replace the rear wing with the spoiler on the Car of Tomorrow (COT) prior to the April 25 Aaron's 499 at Talladega.
The wing has been a fixture of the COT since its debut three years ago at Bristol, where the series runs later this week. Teams have raised concerns about the wing, since it has reduced downforce on the cars. The spoiler was used on the previous cars.
NASCAR has been looking at ways to improve the COT, particularly after Carl Edwards' spectacular crash last April at Talladega. Edwards' car flew into the safety fence along the frontstretch on the final lap, injuring several fans in the grandstands. The incident raised concerns about the car.
Teams used various plate hole sizes in Tuesday's testing at Talladega.
"With the bigger plate and the bigger spoiler, the car accelerates a lot faster," Martin Truex Jr. said. "The cars definitely get up to speed a lot quicker. They feel like they have a lot more drag on them."
The morning session featured single-car runs, while drafting took place later in the day.
"I felt like we learned some things, enough to where we could go ahead and start getting in the draft," Jeff Gordon said after the morning session. "There was about five of us out there. It was definitely productive. Nothing eye-opening. Felt like it went well. The cars have a little bit more turbulent air when you're behind other cars."
NASCAR might also make modifications to the restrictor plates for Talladega.
"Today is primarily a confirmation test that the gear ratio we select is right and is compatible with the restrictor plate size," NASCAR manager director of competition John Darby said.
NASCAR used a bigger restrictor plate for last month's Daytona 500 to allow drivers to have more horsepower. The size of the plate holes was increased to 63/64ths of an inch, making it the largest restrictor plate since the 1989 Daytona 500.
<< Rams add veteran C Fraley
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Rams announced the signing of
veteran center Hank Fraley on Tuesday.
Fraley is entering his 11th season in the NFL after spending the previous four
campaigns with Cleveland. Terms of the deal
<< Dixon out as Furman women's hoops coach
Greenville, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Furman University announced Tuesday the
resignation of women's head basketball coach Sam Dixon.
Dixon spent the last eight seasons guiding the program and exits after a 8-24
season in 2009-10.
"We
<< Browns re-sign CB Ventrone, TE Estandia
Berea, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Browns have re-signed cornerback
Ray Ventrone and tight end Greg Estandia.
Ventrone signed with the Browns as a free agent last September and appeared
mostly on special teams in 2009, where h
<< Jets sign DE Wright
Florham Park, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Jets signed defensive end
Rodrique Wright on Tuesday. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Wright was inactive for the entire 2008 season as a member of Miami and was
waived by the Dol
Bears sign CB Jennings, release FB McKie >>
Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bears made a pair of moves
Tuesday, signing cornerback Tim Jennings to a two-year contract while
releasing fullback Jason McKie.
Jennings spent the first four years of his NFL care
Oregon ousts hoops coach Kent >>
Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oregon Ducks have terminated the contract
of men's head basketball coach Ernie Kent after 13 years guiding the program.
Kent had two years remaining on his contract but had been rumored to be out
follo
Eagles acquire DE Tapp from Seattle >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles acquired defensive
end Darryl Tapp from the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for defensive end Chris
Clemons and a 2010 fourth-round draft pick.
Tapp had re-signed with Seattle on Mond
Yankees hire former Padres GM Towers >>
Tampa, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Towers was named a special assignment scout
for the New York Yankees Tuesday after spending the last 15 years as the
general manager of the San Diego Padres.
Towers spent 26 seasons total with the Pa
LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP
With the first NFL preseason game less than two weeks away, it is time to start thinking about football once again at MySportsbook.com. Reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson is currently the 5-1 co-favorite to win the award again alongside Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning.
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone after his all out assault on the record books last season. For those suffering from amnesia or were under a rock last football season, all L.T. did last season was set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (28), total touchdowns (31) and total points scored (186) to go along with his 1815 rushing yards and 508 receiving yards. At 6-1, Tom Brady is next in line which isn’t surprising considering all of the firepower the Pats added over the off-season. With the addition of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker; it would be quite difficult for Brady’s numbers not to improve from last years 3529 yards and 24 touchdowns. There appears to be some decent value in Drew Bees at 10-1 considering he probably would have won the award last year if it wasn’t for L.T.’s record breaking season.
There is no reason to think the Saints will come back to earth this season and playing in a weak NFC, they should have as good a shot as any to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. At 15-1, Donovan McNabb could also be worth a look. Remember, many felt he was the MVP of the first half of the season before going down with a season ending injury. Reportedly, he is in great shape and well ahead of schedule to return to form. Also, he could have some added motivation to put up big numbers this season with the Eagles using their first pick in the draft on McNabb’s future successor Kevin Kolb.
Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to check out the complete odds for NFL MVP as well as all of the new football related futures. With the popularity of NFL futures, these betting lines will be sure to change as the money comes in; get the early sports lines now.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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