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08/12/2007 - Lebanon, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Skinner led the first 102 laps, but Travis Kvapil finished with a rush to capture Saturday night's Toyota Tundra 200 Craftsman Truck Series race at the Nashville Superspeedway. The No.6 Roush Racing driver crossed the finish line more than one second ahead of Ron Hornaday Jr.
The victory was Kvapil's third of the season and eighth of his truck career.
Skinner brought the field to the green flag for 150 laps of truck racing. Skinner set a fast early pace and only Todd Bodine and Jack Sprague were within five seconds of the leader after just 20 laps.
Skinner had still been the race's only leader as the field crossed the 40-lap mark. He had lapped up to the 26th truck and held a five-second lead. But a caution flag quickly erased the lead on lap 42.
Everyone pitted and Skinner, who made no chassis changes, was first off pit road and ready to rebuild his lead.
The green flag dropped and off went Skinner. Meanwhile, Erik Darnell, who restarted in sixth, immediately dropped out of the top-20 with a severe handling problem, likely a tire going flat. Another caution flag slowed the field, but helped Darnell, who quickly came to pit lane for a new set of tires.
The race got back underway and again Skinner took off. One driver that was making progress in the chase of Skinner was Ron Hornaday Jr. who started 14th, but cracked the top-five by lap 60. And it was Hornaday Jr. who was second in the championship to Skinner and couldn't afford to let him runaway and hide from the field.
Skinner was still putting up a fast numbers, but Musgrave was staying with him this time, as the field passed the halfway point of the race. Musgrave was trying different lines and found one that he could keep up with Skinner, though passing didn't seem in the cards.
It was still a "two-horse race" after 100 laps as both Skinner and Musgrave built a one-second lead on Kvapil and Johnny Benson. Bodine and Hornaday Jr. were stuck in fifth and sixth, respectively but were not making any moves towards the leaders.
A caution flag just after halfway sent everyone down pit lane. Suddenly, Kvapil's truck came to life and within a couple of laps he not only caught Skinner, but made the pass for the lead.
"We made the right adjustments...and we saved our best tires for last," said Kvapil.
On lap 110 Benson blew a right-front tire and he slapped the outside wall to bring out a caution flag. Kvapil was first off pit lane with Hornaday Jr. in second and Skinner in third.
Kvapil stretched the lead to more than one second as the field hit the 115-lap mark, 35 laps to go. They were still one-two-three with 20 laps to go. Kvapil held 1.528 seconds on Hornaday Jr. and more than two seconds on Skinner as the laps dwindled to just 15.
Kvapil was still pounding out the quick laps and the gap between first and second was two seconds with 10 laps to go. Kvapil cruised to the checkered flag.
Skinner finished third and will bring an 82-point lead to the next event.
The next race in the series is set for Wednesday, August 22nd at the Bristol Motor Speedway.
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Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One day after Tiger Woods threatened the lowest
score in major championship history, Boo Weekley put up a number that would
have been the talk of Tulsa.
On Saturday, Weekley fired a five-under 65 and moved
<< Sporting tops Porto to win Portuguese Supercup
Leiria, Portugal (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Midfielder Marat Izmailov scored in the
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Porto on Saturday.
Porto edged Sporting for the Portuguese Liga championship last
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Middlesbrough, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Blackburn striker Benni McCarthy was
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McCarthy hit head
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San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Freddy Sanchez had a huge day as he went
4-for-5 with a two-run home run, two runs scored and a career-high five RBI to
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Brazil defender completes move to Chelsea >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - English Premier League club Chelsea has
completed a deal to acquire Brazil defender Alex from PSV Eindhoven of the
Netherlands.
Alex, 25, helped PSV win three straight Dutch Eredivisie titles. His
PSV Eindhoven loses defender >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - English Premier League club Chelsea has
completed a deal to acquire Brazil defender Alex from PSV Eindhoven of the
Netherlands.
Alex, 25, helped PSV win three straight Dutch Eredivisie titles. His
Kanaan makes late race pass for IndyCar win >>
Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Kanaan was strong all day, but still needed
to make a late race pass of A.J. Foyt IV to capture Saturday night's Meijer
Indy 300 IndyCar race at the Kentucky Speedway. The No.11 Andretti Green
Racing
Federer to battle Djokovic in Rogers Masters final >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Top-seeded and defending champion Roger
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million Rogers Masters -- the sixth of nine Masters Series events this year.
The
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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