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08/21/2007 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After two days of rain delays, Kurt Busch captured Tuesday's 3M Performance 400 at the Michigan International Speedway. The No.2 Penske Racing Dodge crossed the finish line 0.496 seconds ahead of Martin Truex Jr.
The victory was Busch's second of the season and 17th of his Nextel Cup career.
"It feels great to do it in the backyard of the manufacturers," said Busch. "We made some adjustments...Pat Tryson (crew chief), he's awesome. Thanks to everybody that's part of this race team."
The race began under yellow caution flag conditions because although the rain had stopped there was fog around the track. By lap 10 the race was red-flagged because the fog was so thick that the spotters couldn't see the track. Finally, on lap 13 the green flag dropped and the real racing began.
Greg Biffle went right around the outside of Jeff Gordon for the lead on the first green-flag lap and led through the first round of pit stops. Biffle's Roush Fenway Racing teammates were also on the move and both Carl Edwards (started 13th) and Matt Kenseth (started 21st) were inside the top-10.
On the stop, Gordon took only two tires to come out first, while Biffle came out third, behind Denny Hamlin as well.
The two-tire experiment seemed to work for the No.24 Chevy as he built a lead of more than one second by lap 40. However, as the green-flag run lengthened, Gordon began to fade back into the clutches of the field, now led by Jimmie Johnson. Johnson caught and passed Gordon on lap 49. A couple of laps later Kenseth and Brian Vickers also passed Gordon, so while the two-tire experiment worked for a time, it had only limited value.
Gordon continued to fall off, dropping seven seconds off the pace as the field neared the 60-lap mark. Johnson, Kenseth and Vickers were putting up fast laps and were more than three seconds ahead of fourth-place Busch and Edwards.
The three leaders exchanged the lead over the next few laps and their side-by- side "dogfight" allowed Busch to join the fray.
A round of green-flag pit stops began around lap 69 with Gordon one of the first to stop. This time he got four tires and fuel and away he went. When the stops were completed, Kenseth owned a two-second margin on Busch and Gordon was stuck back in 11th place.
Busch was trying to keep up with Kenseth, cutting the gap to 1.5 seconds, but he couldn't close up any further. The man on the move as they approached lap 90 was Dale Earnhardt Jr., who started last after a transmission problem, but cracked the top-10.
At the mid-point, it was still Kenseth and Busch at the top of the scoring pylon, but Gordon had rebounded to fifth with the help of a very quick pit stop. The No.24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet continued to march towards the leader, taking third place on lap 106.
Meanwhile, Busch got side-by-side with Kenseth as the No.2 Dodge stuck to the bottom of the track and grabbed the lead from Kenseth.
With clean air, Busch set a torrid pace and Kenseth couldn't keep up. By lap 125, Busch held a 2.657 second lead on Gordon, who had gotten underneath Kenseth for second.
Another round of green-flag pit stops and it was still Busch and Gordon showing the way. Busch's lead was 3.309 seconds with 60 laps remaining and still expanding. The margin was 5.431 seconds with just 35 laps to go.
Busch was in complete control, but there was still one more pit stop remaining. The leaders began to stop - first Vickers, then Kenseth. Gordon stopped with 34 to go and Busch shortly thereafter. Earnhardt Jr. overshot his pit and it cost him a number of positions, something he couldn't afford in his race for the "Chase."
With 25 laps to go, Busch's lead was 4.566 seconds on Johnson as Gordon fell to seventh after an extra long pit stop. But a debris caution flag set up a short shootout to the checkered flag.
The green flag dropped with 20 laps to go and Busch leading Gordon, Dave Blaney, Truex Jr. and Biffle. Hamlin and Johnson led a group that chose to get new rubber and they restarted sixth and seventh, respectively.
Busch got the jump on Gordon right at the start, while Truex Jr. beat Blaney for third. Fifteen laps to go and Busch's lead was 1.957 seconds over Truex Jr.. Hamlin and Johnson were also flying using their new tires to take third and fourth.
Busch still held more than one second as the laps dwindled to just 10. Then another caution flag as Kenseth got into the back of Gordon in turn four sending the No.24 spinning across the grass.
The race would restart with seven laps. Again Busch got a great jump. Johnson also got off well and he went down the backstretch side-by-side with Truex Jr. Truex Jr. fought him off and then took aim at Busch, who was a half second ahead of him.
A Biffle spin with two laps to go set up a green-white-checker finish. One more great start by Busch did it and he took his second win of the season. Busch led a race-high 92 laps.
Johnson, Kenseth and Hamlin completed the top-five.
In the "race-with-the-race" for the 12th and final playoff position, Busch holds a 163-point lead on Earnhardt Jr. and 171 on teammate Ryan Newman.
The next race is scheduled for Saturday night, August 25th at the Bristol Motor Speedway.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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