Braves down Phils; move closer to Mets in NL East

Baseball Betting Lines

08/12/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kelly Johnson homered and drove in three as the Atlanta Braves held off the Philadelphia Phillies, 7-5, in the second of a three-game set.

Willie Harris and Jeff Francoeur each collected two hits and scored twice, and Francoeur added a solo homer for the Braves, who have won five of seven and leapfrogged the Phillies back into second place in the NL East, 2 1/2 games behind the New York Mets. The Mets lost to the Marlins, 7-5, on Saturday.

Braves starter Lance Cormier was tagged for seven hits and four runs in four- plus innings. Ron Mahay (3-0) tossed a scoreless inning of relief. Bob Wickman picked up his 19th save.

Struggling Phillies starter Adam Eaton (9-8) was ripped for eight hits and six runs in three-plus innings. Jimmy Rollins and Aaron Rowand homered for the Phils, who battled back from the early hole that Eaton dug for them, but still fell for the second time in three games.

Atlanta took the early lead with a Chipper Jones sacrifice fly in the first, and took a four-run lead in the third. Eaton ran into trouble with two outs, giving up a double to Harris and Johnson's 13th homer of the season, a blast to right. Chipper Jones followed with a triple down the line in left, and then Mark Teixeira tripled to left-center on a ball that bounced off the glove of Pat Burrell, putting the Braves up 4-0.

Rollins got one run right back for the Phils, hitting his 21st homer of the season, a solo shot to right with one out in the third.

Eaton couldn't keep the deficit to three, though, giving up a leadoff blast to Francoeur in the fourth and singles to Andruw Jones and Yunel Escobar, ending his night. Johnson came through with a two-out single to center, padding the Atlanta lead to 6-1.

The Phillies climbed back into the game with three runs in the fifth. Chris Coste and pinch-hitter Chris Roberson hit consecutive singles, and Rollins walked. Tadahito Iguchi doubled down the line in right, plating two runs, and Burrell singled to right, scoring another run and chasing Cormier. Mahay came out of the bullpen and, with runners at the corners and no outs, struck out Ryan Howard and Rowand before getting Greg Dobbs to ground out to end the inning.

The Braves added an insurance run in the eighth on Andruw Jones' RBI double off the wall in right-center. The Phillies pulled back to within two runs on Rowand's solo homer to right with one out in the eighth.

Game Notes

Eaton's NL-worst earned run average ballooned to 6.36...Teixeira has 12 RBI as a Brave, driving in a run in eight of his 10 games with Atlanta...Phillies catcher Coste went 2-for-4 and scored a run...Howard went 0-for-4 and left four men on base. Since a two-homer game against Florida on Tuesday, Howard has gone 2-for-13.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.