AFC East: Dolphins alter complexion of division race

Football Betting Lines

10/13/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Given the way the New York Jets defense had played over the first four weeks of the 2009 season, you might have expected the Dolphins to have to change their offensive gameplan a tad.

It stood to reason that a much-improved Jets "D" would be able to take away what Miami did best - running the football in short, methodical increments - and force inexperienced Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne to drop back for most of the night.

However, in this battle of strength vs. strength, it was the Dolphins' strength that won out.

In a 31-27 win that tightened what is shaping up to be an intriguing AFC East race, Tony Sparano's club churned up 151 yards on 36 ground touches (4.2 yards per carry), while putting the football in the hands of their running backs on a total of 44 offensive plays.

Fittingly, the final of those snaps came when Ronnie Brown busted into the end zone from two yards out, out of the team's vaunted "Wildcat" formation, with just six seconds remaining.

"We had six seconds up on the clock, and we were in the huddle and we were like, 'No settling for field goals, we need to score a touchdown,'" said Brown. "We have to finish the game. That was something we had struggled with in the first few games. We said we're going to finish tonight. Whatever we need to do to get the ball in the end zone."

Brown carried 21 times for 74 yards and two touchdowns in the game, completed 1-of-2 pass attempts for 21 yards as the team's Wildcat quarterback, and hauled in another three passes for 14 yards out of the backfield.

Running mate Ricky Williams also had a high-impact night, carrying 11 times for 68 yards and adding a team-high 70 yards on three catches out of the backfield.

"I thought...both Ricky and Ronnie had a great start in the ball game," said Sparano. "I thought Ricky had a great burst and really ran the ball physical. I think Ronnie was very physical at the end of runs."

Meanwhile, Henne (20-of-26, 241 yards, 2 TD) turned in a complementary performance in just his second NFL start, helping lead Miami (2-3) to a win that pulls the team within one game of AFC East co-leaders the Jets (3-2) and Patriots (3-2), and only a couple of weeks after the Dolphins were being left for dead at 0-3.

"There's a lot of panic at 0-2, 0-3, a lot of panic around, but the team stayed pretty level-headed," said Sparano. "I think one of the things that we knew is that some of the things...were self-inflicted. The last couple ball games we haven't turned the ball over, we've forced a couple turnovers. We haven't had our quarterback sacked, I think those things are positives."

Now, Miami will get to enjoy a bye week prior to a critical three-game stretch that includes contests against the unbeaten Saints (10/25), the Jets again on the road (11/1), and a trip to New England (11/8).

"I think it's a huge deal for us right now going into the bye week," said Sparano of the win. "I think a lot of things happened [Sunday] in our division. It just goes to show you that to panic is not the answer. There's an awful lot of football left right now in this season."

BILLS: After their brutal 6-3 home loss to a previously winless Cleveland Browns team on Sunday, it's safe to say that it is a bad week to be Dick Jauron.

Buffalo owner Ralph Wilson probably could have made things a bit easier on Jauron by firing him on Monday morning, a move being demanded by a frustrated and angry Bills fan base, but no such luck. At least for now, there will be no helicopter air-lifting Jauron out of the natural disaster that is the Bills' 2009 season.

"[Sunday] was so bad that it's hard to make a decision right now," Wilson said at a luncheon held in Buffalo on Monday. "I'm not going to make any decisions during the middle of the season...at least right now."

Wilson was non-committal when asked if Jauron will last the season, however.

"I don't know," said the 90-year-old owner. "I'll tell you what: Whatever I say now is going to be twisted around. If I say exactly what I think, whether it's right or wrong, it's going to be twisted around, so I just don't want to talk about it."

The difficulty in firing Jauron is that it probably wouldn't solve anything. The problem during Buffalo's 1-4 start has been the offense, and the Bills are not in a position to change their offensive philosophy at this stage of the year no matter who is wearing the head coach's headset. The team already fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert on the eve of the regular season, replacing him with quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt, but Van Pelt has been hamstrung by a rash of injuries along the offensive line.

So the Jauron era lives on for now, even as anger and skepticism in Buffalo reach a critical mass.

"That's the job in that position, and I clearly haven't been able to reach [the players] to help them, particularly in these last three games, to get them over the hump, to get us where we win," said Jauron. "I understand the criticism."

JETS: In what was a good news-bad news scenario on Monday night, the New York Jets were left accentuating the negative.

On a night in which wide receiver Braylon Edwards made a spectacular debut with the team, Gang Green was let down in its 31-27 loss by a defense that had major trouble getting the Miami Dolphins off the field.

The attacking nature of the Jets' defense through the first four weeks was marginalized by the Dolphins' ability to gain big chunks of yards in the running game, in turn easing the pressure on Miami quarterback Chad Henne, who had a strong night throwing the football.

For the night, the Jets allowed 413 yards, 9-of-14 third-down conversions, did not force a turnover or generate a sack, and allowed the Dolphins to boast a more than seven-minute advantage in time of possession.

"It was a complete embarrassment by our defense and by me, obviously we need to prepare better," said head coach Rex Ryan. "I didn't have the defense prepared the way they should have been, and I take full responsibility for that. I've never been involved in a game like that in my life; our offense did tremendous and gave us every opportunity to win the game...I'm just kind of at a loss for words with our defensive performance. We made that quarterback look like Dan Marino."

The silver lining in the loss was the evolution of an offense that seemed to go from mediocre to explosive with Edwards wearing a Jets uniform for the first time.

The former Pro Bowl receiver, acquired in a trade with the Browns last week, caught five passes for 64 yards, scored one touchdown on a toe-tapping three- yard catch in the first quarter, and should have been credited with another TD on a play that was marked out at the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter.

Eleven of Mark Sanchez's 12 completions on the night went to wide receivers, and the vertical threat that Edwards presented seemed to free things up a bit for a running game that piled up 138 ground yards.

"I think everyone saw it; he's a big time receiver," said Ryan of Edwards. That's one thing we did right last week, making that trade for him. I think he's going to be a huge factor for us."

"I felt really good," said the former first-rounder. "I think the best things about this team are everybody knows all the assignments and where everyone else is supposed to be. All the wide receivers know the playbook and where everyone is supposed to be. Every time I had a question on the field they were very helpful. I like our offense and I think we can get better going into the rest of the season."

PATRIOTS: It's a position in which Bill Belichick is not very accustomed to being: the position of having to defend quarterback Tom Brady.

Though the three-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback was by no means the only culprit in the Patriots' 20-17 overtime road loss to former New England assistant Josh McDaniels and the Broncos on Sunday, there is no doubt that fewer missed throws from Brady would have altered the result on the scoreboard.

Brady was a respectable 19-of-33 for 215 yards and two touchdowns in the loss. but was outplayed by Denver's Kyle Orton (35-of-48, 330 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and missed on two potentially giant plays.

A would-be touchdown to Randy Moss in the end-zone during the first half was the first, and an underthrown mis-connection with Wes Welker late in the fourth quarter was the other huge one.

But at his Monday press conference, Belichick was quick to spread the blame around.

"It's everybody," said Belichick. "It's the receivers, tight ends, backs, the quarterback. It's no different in the passing game on offense than it is on defense. It's protecting to throw the ball and hit whatever the receivers are, whatever the passing combination you have, whether you're running - then, it involves the backs, tight ends and receivers - that combination displaces the defense enough so the quarterback has a place to throw, and the receivers are open, and the protection is there for him to get it off. That is the offensive coordination of the passing game.

"We need to do a better job on that all the way around - that's everybody. That's all 11 guys out there on the field. It's not one man in the passing game [and] it's not one man in pass defense; it's all 11. And it's coaching, too."

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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