17th-ranked Cougars set to pounce on Mustangs

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/21/2009 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 17th-ranked Houston Cougars are set to play their first home game in nearly a month, as they square off against the SMU Mustangs in Conference USA action this weekend at Robertson Stadium.

The Cougars wrapped up a three-game road trip over the weekend, using a big second half to come away with a 44-16 victory over Tulane on Saturday.

"You know, I'm proud of them," said head coach Kevin Sumlin of his team's performance after the intermission. "I thought they came out and created their own energy. They moved the ball offensively to score, stopped them on defense, and blocked a punt. Those are the kind of things that on the road, you couldn't have a better series of events to start the second half."

It was the second win in a row for the Cougars, who suffered their lone loss at Texas-El Paso (58-41) to begin the road trip. Now at 5-1, Houston is off to its best start since 2003 and the team is playing at home for the first time since clipping Texas Tech (29-28) in a thriller back on September 26th.

As for the Mustangs, they have dropped three of their last four games following a 2-0 start to the season. Two of those losses have come in overtime, including a 38-35 setback to Navy this past weekend.

"There's no formula to it," head coach June Jones said about winning overtime games. "You just have to do it. You have to win."

SMU is now 1-10 all-time in overtime games and the two extra-session losses could prove costly for a program that is looking for its first bowl bid since 1984. Still, the Mustangs bring a 2-0 league record to his game and one of those victories came over East Carolina (28-21), the defending C-USA champions.

With respect to the all-time series, the Cougars hold a 14-9-1 edge against SMU and that includes a 44-38 triumph in last season's meeting.

Bo Levi Mitchell's 10-yard touchdown pass to Aldrick Robinson with 1:35 to go forced overtime, but the Mustangs missed a field goal on their possession in the extra-period and Navy's Joe Buckley hit a 24-yarder to give the Midshipmen a 38-35 win this past weekend. It was a disappointing finish for SMU, which gained 376 total yards, right on its season average of 365.0 ypg.

Unlike prior games however, the Ponies had success on the ground and rushed for 176 yards, more than double their average of 84.2 ypg. Shawnbrey McNeal recorded his second 100-yard game of the season and first against a BCS program, toting 15 times for 131 yards. The Mustangs don't run a whole lot, but when given the chance, McNeal has proven capable with 500 yards on the season.

The Mustangs like to spread the field on offense and let Mitchell pick apart opposing defenses. The second-year quarterback though, has had issues with mistakes and has already thrown 10 picks after leading the nation with 23 in 2008. Mitchell, however, is still average 280.8 ypg through the air and against Navy he threw for 200 yards and a score, although he was just 19-of-41 on pass attempts.

Emmanuel Sanders is the primary threat to opposing secondary's and he continues to churn out the numbers, leading SMU with 53 catches for 581 yards and a pair of scores.

After just five games, SMU's defense is noticeably better than a year ago, but the unit still needs to improve on the 393.0 total ypg it is surrendering. The defense though, has compensated for some of the surrendered yards by forcing 20 turnovers, including 13 interceptions.

Last weekend, the Ponies were forced to face Navy's option attack and the defense was shredded for 331 yards and five scores on the ground. The defense did score on a fumble return by Sterling Moore and the group even forced five punts, but it just wasn't enough in the end.

"We played good enough to win defensively," said coach Jones. "If you had told me we could have made them punt five times, I would have thought we'd won."

Chase Kennemer paced the defense with 11 tackles, as he continues to top the roster in stops, with 67 for the year.

Offensively, there are very few teams that can match the explosiveness that Houston brings to the field each week, as the Cougars are generating 40.8 ppg behind a whopping 560.3 total ypg. A majority of the success is attributed to a passing attack that is led by Case Keenum, who has been mentioned as a Heisman Trophy candidate. The efficient quarterback has completed 70.1 percent of his pass attempts for 2,501 yards, with 19 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Last weekend, Keenum threw for 371 yards and two touchdowns on 33-of-46 tosses in another workmen like effort.

"We came out a little mellow in the first half," said Keenum, whose team was up just 9-6 at the break. "We weren't executing in the red zone like we needed to."

Keenum rallied the troops after the intermission and led Houston to 35 second- half points on his way to a sixth straight 300-yard passing performance this season.

James Cleveland caught one of Keenum's touchdown passes last weekend and he has emerged as a threat each week, leading the team with 45 catches and six touchdowns. Tyron Carrier (483 yards) and Patrick Edwards (381) are two other weapons Keenum utilizes on a weekly basis.

Bryce Beall is the team's top option in the backfield and he had 62 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries against Tulane. The versatile Beall has made the most of his rushing attempts this season, going for 437 yards, and he is also part of the passing game, catching 21 balls.

The Cougars certainly need to tighten up things on defense, even if the offense is scoring at such high rate and quick pace. The unit is currently surrendering a way to high 448.2 total ypg and that includes 222.7 ypg on the ground. The defense has managed to recover 10 fumbles, but its nine sacks and four picks are two areas in need of improvement.

Last weekend, Houston bent, but it never broke and gave up just 16 points to Tulane despite allowing 437 total yards, including 187 rushing. The Cougars came up with one interception and two sacks and that helped the defense keep Tulane out of the end zone all but once.

Marcus McGraw helped limit Tulane by making 10 stops and he has been a tackling machine this season, with a team-high 70 to his credit.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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